Source attribution: This briefing is compiled from publicly available information (see references).

Market Mood: 🔴 Risk-Off Despite progress in US-Iran talks and a plunge in oil prices, the US launched new strikes during negotiations, Trump warned of stronger attacks, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated with a mine threat at a port, pushing overall market sentiment toward risk aversion. Drivers: Parallel US-Iran negotiations and military strikes / Uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz navigation / Escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict / Multiple risks to energy supply chains

TL;DR - US military launched strikes on southern Iran near Hormuz, tensions high during negotiations. - US-Iran agreement framework nearing completion, Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 30 days. - Russia threatens escalated strikes on Kyiv, magnetic mine found at Ust-Luga port, increasing energy transport risks.

Summary The situation in the Middle East remains volatile: the US military struck Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz under the pretext of self-defense, while US-Iran negotiators advanced a ceasefire agreement in Doha, with a framework including a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and restoration of navigation through the Strait within 30 days. Oil prices plunged on optimistic expectations of the deal.

Key Transmission Paths - US-Iran conflict escalation → Strait of Hormuz disruption → Crude/LNG supply risk → Oil price surge - US-Iran talks progress → Strait of Hormuz reopening → Increased crude supply → Oil price plunge - Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation → Kyiv threatened → Safe-haven demand → Gold up, risk assets down - UK sanctions relaxation on Russia → Russian energy exports rebound → Global refined product price adjustment

Contradictions / Divergences - US launches strikes during negotiations, contradicting optimistic signals of 'near deal'. - Oil prices plunge on deal expectations, but Trump's tough threats and military actions push up risk premium. - UK eases sanctions on Russia, but US maintains maximum pressure; Western camp lacks coordination.

Lessons Learned - Energy transport routes and oil supply expectations remain core drivers of inflation and risk appetite. - Leader statements and policy signals trigger short-term volatility, but sustained impact depends on subsequent actions. - When geopolitical risks rise, safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar often react before risk assets. - Spillover effects of regional conflicts transmit to global markets through energy, alliances.

Sources Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / JETRO Business News