Source attribution: This briefing is compiled from publicly available information (see references).

Market Mood: 🔴 Risk-Off Although Trump delayed the military strike on Iran, the U.S. considers Iran's proposal insufficient, keeping war risk high; control of the Strait of Hormuz and plummeting oil inventories heighten supply concerns; rifts with allies and proposed arms sales to Taiwan intensify U.S.-China tensions. Multiple risks suppress risk appetite, driving capital toward safe-haven assets. Drivers: U.S.-Iran negotiation stalemate and military standby status / Strait of Hormuz control risk / Commercial oil inventories near critical levels / Deterioration in U.S.-Canada and U.S.-China relations

TL;DR - Trump suspends military strike on Iran but calls Iran's proposal disappointing; Middle East tensions persist. - IEA warns commercial oil inventories only weeks away; Iran formally establishes Strait of Hormuz management authority. - U.S. suspends joint defense cooperation with Canada, proposes arms sales to Taiwan.

Summary Middle East tensions continue to dominate global risk sentiment: President Trump called off a military strike on Iran at the last minute but made clear that Iran's new ceasefire proposal is unacceptable, with U.S. forces remaining on standby; meanwhile, Iran formally established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency warned of a sharp decline in commercial oil inventories.

Key Transmission Paths - U.S.-Iran tensions → oil supply risk → safe-haven demand → gold/dollar strengthens - Strait of Hormuz control → global oil transport disrupted → energy prices spike → inflation expectations rise - U.S.-Canada/U.S.-China relations deteriorate → global risk management rises → equity markets under pressure - Middle East conflict → shipping costs surge → trade costs pass through to consumer prices

Contradictions / Divergences - Trump delays military strike but authorizes and maintains standby; negotiation and war signals coexist. - Iran sends new ceasefire proposal but simultaneously establishes Strait of Hormuz authority. - U.S. suspends defense cooperation with Canada while strengthening arms sales to Taiwan in Asia. - G7 finance ministers focus on economic protection, but fiscal space constrained by high debt. - IEA releases strategic reserves, but commercial inventory decline outpaces reserve release capacity.

Lessons Learned - Delaying an attack does not eliminate risk; markets should be wary of misjudging positions due to 'false détente'. - Strait of Hormuz control dispute continues to escalate, exposing vulnerability of single-route dependence. - U.S. alliance system shows cracks; declining credibility of security commitments may reshape global alliances. - Energy inventory data amplifies short-term price impact; high-frequency inventory indicators should be included in monitoring.

Sources Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / RT News / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Nikkei Asia / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / France 24 #2